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Primeur weekly 2019-11-04

Focus

European Processor Initiative to develop Common Platform for general purpose microprocessor and accelerators for exascale machines and automotive industry ...

Video registration of the presentation "The UK Exascale Project" by Mark Parsons at the HPC User Forum in Edinburgh ...

Exascale supercomputing

Cray introduces ClusterStor E1000 storage to fuel converged workloads of the Exascale Era ...

Quantum computing

ColdQuanta Awarded $2.8M from the U.S. Government to Advance its Quantum Core Technology ...

Focus on Europe

Gauss Centre for Supercomputing supports German student team in the SC19 Student Cluster Competition ...

Joris van Eijnatten appointed director of Netherlands eScience Center ...

Eni announces plans for a new supercomputer at the Green Data Center ...

European Processor Initiative to present its first year of activities ...

Hardware

Powerful new supercomputer supports campus research in physical sciences ...

BittWare and Achronix Announce Strategic Collaboration and Introduction of Enterprise-class PCIe Accelerator Product Featuring 7nm Speedster7t FPGA ...

Pavilion Achieves VMware Ready Status for Its Hyperparallel Flash Array ...

Mellanox delivers record revenue for the third quarter of 2019 ...

Supermicro delivers performance boost to high-density, entry-level, and embedded servers with the new Intel Xeon E-2200 processors ...

Atos enhances scientific research at the University of the Balearic Islands with its BullSequana X supercomputer ...

Applications

Barcelona Supercomputing Center to collaborate in an ESA project for the provision of Generative Artificial Intelligence in space domain ...

Supercomputer analyzes web traffic across entire internet ...

Energy Department announces $4 million for High Performance Computing for Energy Innovation  ...

Marvell joins Green Computing Consortium ...

Predictive Science Inc. researchers use SDSC's Comet supercomputer for flu forecasting models ...

Predictive Science Inc. researchers use SDSC's Comet supercomputer for flu forecasting models


This image released by Predictive Science Inc. depicts the prediction for the next four weeks for the 2019-2020 influenza season. While the season is just beginning, this data suggests that influenza activity will be high this year. Credit: Predictive Science Inc.
1 Nov 2019 San Diego - San Diego-based Predictive Science Inc. (PSI) has released their first forecast for the 2019-2020 influenza season, which typically runs from November through March.

"The current forecast, to be updated every week using data from the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) and Prevention (CDC), suggests that the percentage of influenza-like illness cases will increase by about 75 percent over the next four weeks", stated Pete Riley, senior research scientist and vice president of PSI. "However, the season is just getting started and predictions are not yet that accurate."

"In terms of the relative strength of the current season, at least for San Diego, the cumulative number of reported cases is currently the largest within the last decade or so, suggesting that flu activity is going to be high this year", added Pete Riley.

PSI researchers used the Comet supercomputer at the San Diego Supercomputer Center - an Organized Research Unit of UC San Diego - to train, calibrate, and validate their models for their participation in the CDC Flu Challenge. They used a modelling framework that accounts for a range of mechanisms thought to be important for influenza transmission, such as climatic conditions, school vacations, and the coupling between different regions.

The CDC has estimated that each year there are three to five million seasonal cases of severe influenza illness throughout the world - resulting in 290.000 to 650.000 respiratory deaths. In the U.S., the spread of influenza is tracked by the CDC using what's called the Percent of outpatient visits with Influenza-Like Illness, or % ILI, symptoms, which encompass a temperature above 100 degrees Fahrenheit, a cough and/or a sore throat.

"The CDC's ILI data is published on a weekly basis for the nation, regions, and states", stated Michal Ben-Nun, a research scientist at PSI. "For health care providers, preparing and responding to the spread of flu can be difficult because of unknowns as to when and where it spreads, when it peaks, and how the strength of the peak varies from season to season."

Since the 2013-2014 season, the CDC has run the CDC Flu Challenge to predict the timing, intensity and short-term incidence of influenza. The long-term goal of the Challenge is to help health care providers plan ahead and reduce the impact of flu.

"Some of our models use historic ILI data to augment the season we are predicting as well as past statistical information about the force of infection", stated Michal Ben-Nun. "During each of the CDC Flu Challenge weeks, the most up-to-date data is used by PSI to run the models and submit our weekly forecast for onset of the flu season, season peak week, season peak intensity, and ILI activity during the next one to four weeks."

For each of the models, the forecast is made after fitting the model parameters using a Markov-Chain-Monte Carlo procedure. When the models were developed, tested and in some cases, trained, the PSI researchers used Comet to perform a retrospective forecast for each epidemic week in the past eight influenza seasons.

"These calculations fall under the category of 'embarrassingly parallel', which means we can run each model, for each week and each season on a single core", explained Michal Ben-Nun. "We received a lot of support and help when we installed our codes on Comet and in writing the scripts that launched hundreds of calculations at once - our retrospective studies of past influenza seasons would not have been possible without access to a supercomputer like Comet."

For additional information about how PSI uses supercomputers to complete their work ranging from influenza forecasting to the prediction of solar eclipses, refer to this recent article by the National Science Foundation's Extreme Science and Engineering Discovery Environment (XSEDE).

For weekly updates as well as past forecasts, you can consult the Predictive Science website.
Source: San Diego Supercomputer Center - SDSC

Back to Table of contents

Primeur weekly 2019-11-04

Focus

European Processor Initiative to develop Common Platform for general purpose microprocessor and accelerators for exascale machines and automotive industry ...

Video registration of the presentation "The UK Exascale Project" by Mark Parsons at the HPC User Forum in Edinburgh ...

Exascale supercomputing

Cray introduces ClusterStor E1000 storage to fuel converged workloads of the Exascale Era ...

Quantum computing

ColdQuanta Awarded $2.8M from the U.S. Government to Advance its Quantum Core Technology ...

Focus on Europe

Gauss Centre for Supercomputing supports German student team in the SC19 Student Cluster Competition ...

Joris van Eijnatten appointed director of Netherlands eScience Center ...

Eni announces plans for a new supercomputer at the Green Data Center ...

European Processor Initiative to present its first year of activities ...

Hardware

Powerful new supercomputer supports campus research in physical sciences ...

BittWare and Achronix Announce Strategic Collaboration and Introduction of Enterprise-class PCIe Accelerator Product Featuring 7nm Speedster7t FPGA ...

Pavilion Achieves VMware Ready Status for Its Hyperparallel Flash Array ...

Mellanox delivers record revenue for the third quarter of 2019 ...

Supermicro delivers performance boost to high-density, entry-level, and embedded servers with the new Intel Xeon E-2200 processors ...

Atos enhances scientific research at the University of the Balearic Islands with its BullSequana X supercomputer ...

Applications

Barcelona Supercomputing Center to collaborate in an ESA project for the provision of Generative Artificial Intelligence in space domain ...

Supercomputer analyzes web traffic across entire internet ...

Energy Department announces $4 million for High Performance Computing for Energy Innovation  ...

Marvell joins Green Computing Consortium ...

Predictive Science Inc. researchers use SDSC's Comet supercomputer for flu forecasting models ...